Hi Thomas, thanks for your thoughts. I agree that there is unlikely to be a second “Edinburgh Agreement” given the Scottish Government’s “once in a generation” pronouncements. The UK Government (of whatever colour) will hold them to that.
Instead, yes, it will probably be a Catalan situation, where the referendum will be held unilaterally by the Scottish Government. It could be messy and acrimonious, but the polls and mandate may be too strong by then for the referendum not to happen, even if the Scottish Government wanted it not to take place. In such a scenario, I can’t honestly see the UK Government stopping it happening – not giving their consent, yes; actively stopping it happening, no.
So September this year will save us a whole lot of hassle!